For the winter, it’s all about El Niño in the United States.

In these uncertain times, we know at least one thing for sure: El Niño is here. There’s 100% certainty El Niño will last through early winter, the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, recently said, and a 90% or higher chance it lasts into spring.

El Niño typically divides the country in half, but where the dividing line falls varies from year to year. The southern third to half of the United States, including California, is likely to be wetter during an El Niño winter. The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are usually dry and warm.

While El Niño’s impacts are never a guarantee, the climate pattern tends to influence weather across the U.S. as it reaches peak strength in the winter.

What is interesting is that even though the NOAA says the weather event impact is not guaranteed, the Daily Mail reports El Niño’s effect as bringing very cold weather to the northern half of the United States and wetter weather to the southern half looks very likely when taking the past into account when El Nino’s were strong.

The shift has a big impact on weather patterns around the globe – and this year’s El Niño is expected to be the strongest since 2015 – which saw the warmest U.S. winter on record.

The new maps show that – during strong El Niño seasons – the northern U.S. is usually drier, while the southern U.S. typically is wetter and snowier.

…During stronger El Niño winters, there is more snow than average in the Midwest area of the U.S. and western states like Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.

New England confronts far less snow than normal during intense El Niño seasons – New York, Vermont and parts of Maine are likely to see far less snowfall this winter than the average from 1991-2020.

But, of course, if the so-called experts are proven wrong no doubt they’ll somehow blame it on climate change. However, one indication that reinforces wet winter predictions for the southern half of the U.S. is coming out of California. After being ill-prepared earlier this year, California officials are not taking any chances and flood warnings are already being issued.

With California facing the prospect of a second consecutive winter of heavy precipitation, state officials are urging residents to prepare for possible widespread flooding and evacuations in the coming months.

Barely a year after dozens of powerful atmospheric rivers pounded the state and triggered historic flooding, state officials gathered at a muddy berm and pumping station near the Sacramento River this week to highlight the threat of flooding in a warming climate.

“These flood risks are getting more intense and we’re doing more than ever to protect California from these risks,” said Wade Crowfoot, California’s natural resources secretary.

With the coming winter cold, there are also indications many of the affected areas resulting from El Niño could be caught off guard as well.

Americans could face a sticker shock with their heating bills this winter, especially if it is a chilly one, due to unusually low U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuels following OPEC+ crude supply cuts and higher demand from Europe, analysts said.

Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were by late August about 15% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

At below 118 million barrels, stocks represented around 31 days of supply.

“We are living barrel to barrel and there is just no room for errors in the system,” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said. “If we get a cold winter, there are going to be significant price shocks.”

Better start stocking up on the firewood and heating oil! It promises to be a long, cold winter.

PHOTO CREDIT: Pixabay