Forecast super El Niño for fall nearly double the strength of 1998 Super El Niño

Watts Up With That?

Wow!  ECMWF Long-Term Weather Model Is Predicting a Super El Niño and I Mean Super

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

I was notified today of the rather remarkable plume of ENSO forecasts for 2015 from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).  See their System 4 ENSO region sea surface temperature anomaly forecast webpage here.

Figure 1 presents the ECWMF plume of sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts for the NINO3 region (5S-5N, 150W-90W), with some of the runs reaching highs in November 2015 in the neighborhood of +4.5 deg C.

Figure 1

Figure 1

For those unfamiliar with them, see the map of NINO regions here.

Figure 2 show the plume for the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W). Note how a couple of the runs reach beyond the upper +4 deg C extent of the y-axis.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Now consider that NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies peaked at +2.7…

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